Ko e mahuʻinga fakavahaʻapuleʻanga ʻo e kopa ʻi he 2024 kuo fakahaaʻi ʻa e fetoʻaki ki ʻolunga, makatuʻunga ʻi he ngaahi moʻoniʻi meʻa kehekehe kau ai ʻa e fakaakeake fakaʻekonomika fakae, Ko e fie maʻu ke liliu ʻa e ivi lanu mata, Ngaahi fakangatangata ʻo e seini maʻuʻanga koloa ʻi he keli kopa, mo e ongoʻi ʻo e maketi fakapaʻanga. ʻE vakaiʻi ʻe he fakamatala ko ʻeni ʻa e ngaue ʻa e mahuʻinga ʻo e kopa ʻi he 2024 mo e fakamatala pau mo e ngaahi tefitoʻi meʻa mahuʻinga, ʻoatu ha fakamatala lelei ki he fetoʻaki ʻo e mahuʻinga ʻo e kopa ʻi he 2025, pea ʻoatu ha ngaahi fokotuʻu ngaue ki he kau palofesinale ʻi he ngaueʻanga.
ʻI he 2024, naʻe fetoʻaki ʻa e mahuʻinga ʻo e kopa ʻi he vahaʻ $9,000 mo e $10,500 ki he toni. ʻOku ʻoatu ʻi lalo ha fakamatala fakanounou ʻo e ngaue ʻa e mahuʻinga ʻo e kopa ʻi he kuata:
ʻUluaki Kuata: ʻI he kamataʻanga ʻo e 2024, naʻe fakafuofua ki he mahuʻinga ʻo e kopa $9,000 ki he $9,500, ʻoku ne fakahaaʻi ʻa e tuai ʻa e fakaakeake fakaʻekonomika fakamamani lahi mo e fie maʻu siʻ.
Kuata hono Ua: Mei ʻEpeleli ki Sune, naʻe toe hiki hake ʻa e mahuʻinga ʻo e kopa ki he vahaʻa ʻ $9,500 mo e $9,800, Driven by a rebound in manufacturing and green energy demand.
Kuata hono tolu: ʻI ʻAokosi, Naʻe laka hake ʻa e mahuʻinga ʻo e kopa $10,000, ʻi he ofi ʻa e totongi $10,500 ʻi Sepitema, tautautefito koeʻuhi ko e fakautuutu ʻo e fie maʻu ʻo e ivi fakafoʻou mo e hokohoko atu ʻa e bottlenecks ʻo e seini ʻo e maʻuʻanga kolo.
Fakafuofua ki he Kuata Faa: ʻOku ʻamanaki ʻe fetoʻaki ʻa e mahuʻinga ʻo e kopa ʻi he vahaʻa ʻo e $9,500 mo e $10,500 ʻi he kuata hono faa. ʻI he vaivai ʻa e fie maʻu fakafaʻahitaʻu ʻi he fakaʻosinga ʻo e taʻu, ʻE lava ke hoko ha kiʻi holomui siʻisiʻi.
Fakamatala Fakanounou ʻo e Fakamatala Mahuʻinga:
Liliu ʻo e ivi lanu mata fakaemamani lahi: ʻI he 2024, ʻOku fakalahi ʻe he ngaahi fonua ʻi mamani ʻa e ngaahi ʻinivesi ʻi he ivi matangi, Ivi ʻo e laʻaa, mo e fakaleleiʻi ʻo e grid, tupu ai ʻa e fie maʻu lahi ʻo e kopa. Fakatatau ki he International Copper Association, ʻOku ʻamanaki ʻe tupu ʻa e fie maʻu ʻo e kopa mei he sekitoa ivi fakafoʻou ʻo laka hake ʻi he 6% taʻu ki he taʻu ʻi he 2024.
Tupulaki vave ʻo e kautaha meʻalele ʻuhila: ʻOku fakafuofua ʻe hiki hake ʻa e fakatau fakamamani lahi ʻo e ngaahi meʻalele ʻuhila 20% ʻi he 2024, ʻoku fie maʻu ʻe ha meʻalele ʻuhila ʻavalisi 80 kilo ʻo e kopa, fakalahi ʻa e fie maʻu ʻo e kopa.
Ngaahi fonua lalahi ʻoku ngaohi ʻaki ʻa e kopa, hange ko Silei mo Pelu, ʻoku nau fehangahangai mo e ngaahi fakangatangata koeʻuhi ko e ngaahi tuʻutuʻuni mo e ngaahi tuʻutuʻuni ki he ʻ, fakatupu ʻa e tupu ʻa e ngaohi ʻo e kopa ke tomui ʻi he fie maʻu. Fakamatala mei he International Copper Study Group (ICSG) ʻoku fakahaaʻi ai ha 1% nounou ʻo e koloa ʻi he 2024, toe hiki hake ʻa e totongi ʻo e kopa.
Fakautuutu ʻa e fakamole ki hono ngaohi: Kuo hiki hake ʻa e totongi ʻo e keli kopa mo e fakamaʻa ʻaki ʻa e 10% ʻi he 2024, tautautefito ki ʻAmelika Tonga, ʻa ia ʻoku poupouʻi malohi ai ʻe he fakautuutu ʻo e totongi ʻo e kopa..
Ko e fakaakeake fakaʻekonomika fakaemamani lahi ʻi he 2024, tautautefito ki he ngaahi ʻinivesi ʻi Siaina mo ʻInitia, kuo ne ʻomi ha poupou lahi ki he fie maʻu ʻo e kopa. ʻOku ʻamanaki ʻe tupu ʻa e sekitoa ngaohiʻanga koloa ʻi Siaina ʻaki ʻa e fakafuofua 4% ʻi he 2024, toe poupouʻi lahi ange ʻa e totongi ʻo e kopa ʻi he ngaahi tuʻunga maʻolunga.
ʻI he lotolotonga ʻo e taʻepau fakaʻekonomika fakaemamani lahi, Kuo tohoakiʻi mai ʻe he kopa ha ʻinivesi lahi ko ha koloa maluʻi. Fakamatala mei he London Metal Exchange (LME) ʻoku fakahaaʻi ai ha 15% tupu fakataʻu ʻi he lahi ʻo e fefakatauʻaki ʻo e kopa ʻi he 2024. Kuo tokoni ʻa e ongoʻi ʻa e kau ʻinivesitoa ki he fetoʻaki mo e hiki ʻa e totongi.
Makatuʻunga ʻi he ngaahi fetoʻaki mo e ngaahi meʻa ʻoku ne fakaʻaiʻai ʻa e 2024, ʻOku ʻamanaki ʻe kei maʻolunga pe ʻa e mahuʻinga ʻo e kopa ʻi he 2025. Koeʻuhi ko e hokohoko atu ʻa e fie maʻu mei he ivi fakafoʻou mo e ngaahi meʻalele ʻuhila, hokohoko atu ʻa e ngaahi fakangatangata ʻo e seini maʻuʻanga kolo, mo e taʻepau fakasiopolitikale, ʻOku fakafuofua ʻe fetoʻaki ʻa e mahuʻinga ʻo e kopa ʻi he vahaʻa ʻo e $9,200 mo e $11,800 ki he toni ʻi he 2025. ʻOku ʻoatu ʻi lalo ha fakamatala fakakuata fakaikiiki ki he mahuʻinga ʻo e kopa ʻo makatuʻunga ʻi he 2024 fakamatala:
ʻUluaki Kuata (Q1): Ko e totongi ʻo e kopa ʻoku fakafuofua ki ai ʻoku ʻi he vahaʻa ʻo e $9,200 mo e $10,200 ki he toni, ʻi he toe foki mai ʻa e fie maʻu pea kei siʻisiʻi pe ʻa e koloa, ʻAi ke maʻolunga ange ʻa e totongi.
Kuata hono Ua (Q2): Mo e fie maʻu lahi ange ʻe he maketi ivi fakafoʻou, ʻOku ʻamanaki ke aʻu ʻa e mahuʻinga ʻo e kopa ki he tumutumu ʻo e $10,200 ki he $11,500 ki he toni.
Kuata hono tolu (Q3): Ko e faʻahitaʻu tumutumu ʻo e fie maʻu ʻo e kopa, ʻoku fakafuofua ʻe fetoʻaki ʻa e totongi ʻi he vahaʻa ʻo e $9,800 mo e $11,000 ki he toni.
Kuata hono Fa (Q4): Koeʻuhi ko e holo ʻa e fie maʻu ʻi he fakaʻosinga ʻo e taʻu, ʻoku ʻamanaki ke kehekehe ʻa e totongi mei he $10,500 ki he $11,800 ki he toni.
ʻOku makatuʻunga ʻa e fakafuofua ko ʻeni ʻo e totongi ʻi he fakamatala ʻoku ʻiloʻi mo e ngaahi fetoʻaki ʻo e ngaueʻanga, ʻomi ha maʻuʻanga tokoni maʻa e kau palofesinale ʻi he maketi kopa ki hono fai ʻo e tuʻutuʻuni ʻi he 2025.
ʻE kei hokohoko atu pe ʻa e fakalakalaka ʻa e liliu ʻo e ivi lanu mata fakaemamani lahi. ʻOku ʻamanaki ke tupu ʻa e fakatau atu ʻo e ngaahi meʻalele ʻuhila ʻaki ʻa e 15%-20% ʻi he 2025. ʻIkai ngata aí, ʻOku ʻamanaki ke toe lahi ange ʻa e fie maʻu mei he maketi ivi fakafoʻou, poupouʻi ʻa e hiki hake ʻi he fie maʻu ʻo e kopa.
ʻOku taʻofi ʻa e fakalahi ʻo e ngaohi kopa ʻi he ngaahi fonua lalahi hange ko Silei mo Pelu, pea ʻoku ngalingali ʻe ngalingali ʻe holo vave ʻa e ngaahi teke ʻo e seini maʻuʻanga koloa. ʻE kei hokohoko atu pe hono poupouʻi ʻe he tuʻunga ʻo e siʻisiʻi ʻo e koloa ʻa e maʻolunga ange ʻa e mahu.
Ngaahi liliu ʻi he tuʻunga fakasiopolitikale mo e ngaahi tuʻutuʻuni fefakatauʻaki ʻi he 2025 ʻE lava ke ne uesia ʻa e maketi kopa. ʻE uesia lahi ʻa e totongi ʻo e kopa ʻi he ngaahi tute hu mai mo e fetoʻaki ʻo e seini maʻuʻanga koloa tupu mei he liliu ʻo e ngaahi tuʻutuʻuni ʻi he ngaahi fonua lalahi ʻoku nau fakaʻaongaʻi ʻa e koloa.
Fakautuutu ʻa e fie maʻu mei he ngaahi maketi kei tupu hake hange ko Siaina mo ʻInitia ʻi he 2025 ʻE fakalele ia ʻe he toe fakafoki mai ʻo e ngaahi ngaue ki he langa fale, Toe poupou lahi ange mahuʻinga ʻo e kopa fakalahi.
Koeʻuhi ko e hokohoko atu ʻa e taʻepau fakaʻekonomika ʻi he 2025, ʻE kei hokohoko atu pe hono tohoakiʻi ʻe he kopa ʻa e tokanga ko ha koloa maluʻi, malava ke ne fakatupu ʻa e fetoʻaki ʻo e totongi.
ʻOku faleʻi ʻa e ngaahi kautaha ke nau palani lelei ʻa e ngaahi tuʻunga ʻo ʻenau koloa kopa pea lokaʻi ʻa e mahuʻinga kimuʻa ke fakaʻehiʻehi mei he mamafa ʻo e fakamole mei he hiki ʻa e totongi. ʻOku totonu ke nau siofi ofi ʻa e ngaahi moʻoniʻi meʻa fakasiopolitikale mo e ngaahi tuʻutuʻuni fefakatauʻaki ʻe lava ke ne uesia ʻa e mahuʻinga ʻo e kopa pea fokotuʻu ha ngaahi founga ke tali ki he tu.
ʻOku totonu ke tokanga lahi ange ʻa e ngaahi pisinisi ʻoku nau fie maʻu ʻa e ngaahi koloa kopa ki he ngaahi liliu ʻi he fiemaʻu ʻi loto Ko e sekitoa ʻo e ivi fakafoʻou, tautautefito ki he ngaahi meʻalele ʻuhila mo e fakalahi ʻo e grid, pea fakatupulaki ʻa e ngaahi founga maketi ʻo fakatatau mo e fetoʻaki ʻo e mahuʻinga ʻo e kopa.
ʻOku ʻomi ʻe he maketi ʻo e kopa ʻi he kahaʻu ʻa e ngaahi meʻangaue ki he maluʻi ʻo e ngaahi fakatuʻutamaki ʻo e. Koeʻuhi ko e volatility maʻolunga ʻo e mahuʻinga ʻo e kopa ʻi he 2025, ʻE lava ke tokoni ʻa hono lokaʻi ʻo e totongi ʻo fakafou ʻi he ngaahi aleapau ki he kahaʻu ki he ngaahi pisinisi ke mapuleʻi ʻa.
ʻE lava ke vakaiʻi ʻe he ngaahi kautaha faʻu koloa ʻe niʻihi ha ngaahi naunau kehe hange ko e aluminium pea fakatahaʻi ʻa e ngaahi meʻa foʻou fakatekinolosia ke fakaleleiʻi ʻa, ʻo fakasiʻisiʻi ai ʻa e fakafalala ki he kopa mo fakasiʻisiʻi ʻa e ngaahi malohi ʻo e hiki ʻa e totongi.
Fakakatoa, totongi ʻo e kopa ʻi he 2024 ʻoku ʻamanaki ke tauhi ʻa e tuʻunga maʻolunga ʻi he vahaʻa ʻo e $9,000 mo e $10,500, tefito hono takiekina ʻe he fie maʻu ʻo e ivi lanu mata fakaemamani lahi, ngaahi fakangatangata ʻo e seini ʻo e maʻuʻanga, mo e ngaahi moʻoniʻi meʻa ʻi he maketi fakapa. ʻOku ʻamanaki ʻe hokohoko atu ʻa e ngaue ʻa e totongi kopa ʻi he ngaahi tuʻunga maʻolunga ʻi he 2025, mo ha ngaahi meʻa kehekehe ʻe malava ke $9,500 ki he $11,000. ʻOku totonu ke tokanga taha ʻa e kau palofesinale ki hono tokangaʻi ʻo e koloa, Nofo maʻu ʻi he ngaahi fie maʻu ʻa e maketi ivi fakafoʻou, fakaʻaongaʻi ʻa e ngaahi maketi ʻi he kahaʻu ki he maluʻi ʻo e tuʻunga fakatuʻutamaki, pea fakakaukauʻi ʻa e ngaahi founga fetongi ʻo e naunau ke maʻu ha tali lelei ange ki he maketi.
ʻI hono fakahoko ʻo e ngaahi founga ʻi ʻolunga, ʻE lava ke liliu lelei ange ʻa e kau palofesinale ʻi he sekitoa ʻo e kopa ki he ngaahi fetoʻaki ʻo e maketi mo puke ʻa e ngaahi faingamalie ʻoku ʻomi ʻe he ngaahi fetoʻaki ʻo e mahuʻinga ʻi he kahaʻu.
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