1. The Co-evolution of Energy and Civilization: Echoes of the Past, Calls for the Future
1.1 Energy: The Foundation of Civilization
Energy is the fundamental capacity to perform work. It powers not only basic human needs—like heating and cooking—but also drives technological progress, economic development, and social complexity. From fire-making to coal-fired power, from wind-driven ships to nuclear-powered vessels, the type, density, and efficiency of energy sources have directly shaped human capacity to transform nature, enhance productivity, and build complex societies. Without a continuous energy supply and improved efficiency, there would be no urbanization, division of labor, or globalization. Understanding energy history is key to understanding human civilization itself.
1.2 Historical Phases of Energy Use and Social Transformation
Changes in energy use define major phases of human history. Building on historian E.A. Wrigley’s framework and extending it to the modern era, we can divide energy history into three main stages:
Organic Energy Era (Prehistory to mid-18th century)
This long period relied on biomass (wood, straw), animal power, and natural forces (wind, water). Energy density was extremely low (usually <0.5 W/m²), limiting productivity, population growth, and societal complexity. Societies were agrarian, small-scale, and vulnerable to environmental limits. Deforestation and ecological strain often follow overuse of wood fuel.
Fossil Energy Era (1760s – 2020s)
Marked by the invention of the steam engine, this era saw the mass exploitation of coal, oil, and natural gas. With high energy density (20–50 W/m² or more), fossil fuels fueled the Industrial Revolution, global urbanization, and rapid economic expansion. However, it also led to overconsumption, pollution, and climate change.
Sustainable Energy Era (2020s onward)
Society is shifting toward clean, low-carbon, renewable energy systems in response to resource depletion and the climate crisis. Solar, wind, nuclear (especially advanced reactors), hydrogen, and biomass are key sources. The goal is a near-zero or negative carbon energy cycle, representing not only a technical shift but a fundamental change in the human development model—from extractive to symbiotic. This transition will redefine global industries, energy geopolitics, and governance.
1.3 Driving Forces Behind the Energy Transition
Historically, every shift in energy paradigms has been the result of long-term, multifaceted influences rather than a sudden transformation. The main driving forces include:
Technological breakthroughs
Innovation is the most direct engine of energy transitions. From improved steam engines and internal combustion engines to high-efficiency photovoltaic cells, large-scale wind turbines, and potentially nuclear fusion in the future, technological advancements have not only increased the efficiency of energy extraction and conversion but also opened up entirely new avenues for energy use. Resources that were once impractical or inefficient have become economically viable.
Resource scarcity and constraints
The limitations or exhaustion threats of traditional energy sources have driven humanity to seek alternatives. For example, in the 18th century, the rapidly growing demand for timber in Britain exceeded the sustainable supply from forests, triggering the “wood crisis,” which directly stimulated the large-scale mining and use of coal. Today, concerns about “peak oil” and the finite nature of fossil fuels are significant global motivators for the shift toward renewable energy.
Environmental constraints and climate change pressures
As energy use has expanded, its environmental impact has become increasingly apparent. Severe air pollution in industrial cities—such as the infamous London smog, led to improvements in energy structure and combustion technologies in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. In the 21st century, global climate change caused by greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel combustion has become humanity’s most pressing challenge, prompting countries to set carbon reduction goals and accelerate green energy transitions.
Economic efficiency and cost competitiveness
As technologies mature and economies of scale take effect, the cost of renewable energy continues to decline, making it increasingly competitive in the global energy market. For example, in recent years, the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for solar and wind power has fallen below that of newly built fossil fuel power plants in many regions, providing strong market momentum for the energy transition.
Geopolitics and energy security
Overreliance on specific energy sources can pose significant national security risks. The global oil crises have shown that countries dependent on imported fossil fuels are vulnerable to geopolitical turmoil. Developing diverse and localized renewable energy sources enhances energy independence and strengthens national security.
2. The History of Human Energy Use: From the Flicker of Fire to the Titans of Nuclear Power
2.1 The Age of Organic Energy: Nature’s Gifts and Limitations (1,000,000 BCE – 1500 CE)
This long period was marked by humanity’s direct interaction with natural forces. The domestication of fire was the most significant early energy revolution. Evidence from Zhoukoudian near Beijing indicates that early Homo sapiens had learned to control fire around 500,000 years ago. Fire provided heat for warmth and cooking (greatly improving nutrient absorption), was used to make tools (ceramics, quenching metals), provided lighting, repelled wild animals, and helped alter the environment (slash-and-burn farming). However, early fire use was inefficient, with substantial heat loss, and collecting fuel (mainly firewood) was labor-intensive.
With the rise of agricultural civilizations, biomass became the dominant primary energy source, accounting for over 90% of energy consumption. Agricultural production relied heavily on human and animal labor. Though this increased dependence on land productivity, it also highlighted the limits of sustainable land use and the slow renewability of wood, constraining the scale of societal development. Several ancient civilizations, such as the late Roman Empire, suffered from fuelwood shortages and environmental degradation due to excessive deforestation, reflecting the inherent constraints of the organic energy era.
In parallel, humans gradually harnessed natural forces. As early as 200 BCE, vertical-axis windmills were used in Persia for grinding and irrigation, demonstrating early human ingenuity in utilizing wind energy. In the Han Dynasty, China had widely adopted water-powered hammers (shuidui), achieving a hydraulic efficiency of about 30%. While these uses of natural power were often region-specific and small-scale, they laid the groundwork for industrial-era applications of natural forces.
2.2 The Prelude to the Fossil Fuel Era: Coal and the Industrial Revolution (1760–1900)
The first true “energy revolution” began with the large-scale use of coal. In the mid-18th century, Britain benefited from abundant coal reserves and faced a “wood crisis.” Breakthroughs in steam engine technology, particularly James Watt’s improvements to the Newcomen engine in the 1760s, increased thermal efficiency from about 1% to over 5%, dramatically reducing coal consumption. This enabled steam engines to be commercially applied in mining, textiles, metallurgy, and other industries.
Coal-powered steam engines provided unprecedented centralized and large-scale power, transforming modes of production. Factories replaced dispersed workshops, and machine production replaced manual labor, thus sparking the First Industrial Revolution. Coal output in Britain soared from about 3 million tons in 1700 to 225 million tons by 1900, becoming the backbone of the “workshop of the world.”
Coal’s high energy density and transportability (compared to wood) expanded the geographic scope of production activities and enabled new transportation technologies like railways and steamships. This helped dismantle geographic constraints, spurred global trade, and accelerated urbanization. A strong positive feedback loop emerged between energy input and economic output: coal provided cheap power → boosted industrial productivity → economic growth → more investment in energy R&D and infrastructure → further improvements in energy efficiency and accessibility. For instance, GDP output per ton of coal rose from £1.2 in 1800 to £4.7 by 1900 (historic currency values), demonstrating how energy efficiency and economic prosperity reinforced one another.
2.3 Oil, Electricity, and Nuclear Power: The Engines of Modern Civilization (1900–2000)
Century of oil
The 20th century is often called the “Oil Century” and the “Age of Electrification.” Oil, with its high energy density and easy transport and refinement, rose rapidly to prominence. The maturation of internal combustion engine technology, especially its application in automobiles and aircraft, was the primary driver of the oil boom. Henry Ford’s assembly line production made cars affordable for ordinary households, and global oil consumption surged from about 190 million barrels in 1910 to 17 billion barrels in 1970. This transformed urban design, mobility patterns, and even geopolitical dynamics. Oil not only served as fuel—its downstream products, such as plastics, fertilizers, and synthetic fibers, became foundational to modern industry and daily life.
Electrification Revolution
Simultaneously, the electrification revolution unfolded. As a clean, flexible, easily transmitted, and controllable secondary energy form, electricity significantly enhanced the efficiency and convenience of energy use. In 1882, Thomas Edison built the world’s first commercial central power station—Pearl Street Station in New York—marking the birth of the modern power grid. Electricity powered new industrial sectors (e.g., electrical appliances, telecommunications), revolutionized household life (e.g., electric lighting, home appliances), and dramatically increased productivity. Global electricity generation soared from about 5 billion kWh in 1900 to roughly 15 trillion kWh by 2000. Electricity became the most vital energy carrier of modern society, with generation initially based on coal but gradually including hydropower, oil, and natural gas.
Technology of atomic energy
By the mid-20th century, humanity had learned to harness atomic energy. In 1954, the Obninsk Nuclear Power Plant in the Soviet Union became the first to connect to the grid, marking nuclear energy’s entry as a new energy form with extremely high density. Nuclear power generation produces no greenhouse gases, requires minimal fuel, and delivers stable output. Despite crises like Chernobyl and Fukushima that sparked public skepticism and development setbacks, nuclear power remained a major source of low-carbon baseload electricity, accounting for 10.4% of global electricity generation by 2020, and serving as a key power source in countries like France.
This century of energy evolution, with its unprecedented scale and pace, has powered population growth, economic prosperity, and technological advancement. Yet, it also sowed the seeds for future challenges.
3. The Deep-rooted Dilemmas of the Fossil Fuel Era and Lessons for Transition
3.1 Structural Challenges: Resources, Environment, and Geopolitics
The remarkable success of fossil fuels has also brought about unavoidable structural contradictions and deep-seated dilemmas:
Resource Limits and Supply Risks
Fossil fuels are the remains of organic matter formed through geological processes hundreds of millions of years ago and are non-renewable resources. Although newly proven reserves are continuously being added, the total reserves are ultimately finite. According to statistics from BP and other organizations, at the current rate of consumption, the proven reserves of oil, natural gas, and coal are expected to last for 53, 54, and 132 years, respectively. The uneven distribution of these resources also means that energy supply is highly concentrated in a few regions, leading to potential risks of supply disruption and price volatility.
Climate Crisis and Ecological Damage
The combustion of fossil fuels is the primary cause of the sharp increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, mainly carbon dioxide. Successive IPCC assessment reports have pointed out that cumulative emissions since the Industrial Revolution have led to global warming, triggering extreme weather events, glacial melting, sea level rise, and loss of biodiversity, among other severe ecological crises. Between 2010 and 2019, CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels totaled 340 billion tons, accounting for 31% of total emissions since the Industrial Revolution. This not only threatens the stability of ecosystems but also poses long-term risks to human survival and development.
Geopolitical Risks and Conflict Triggers
The high geographical concentration of global oil and gas resources has made energy supply a key factor in international political struggles and geopolitical conflicts. Historical energy crises—such as those in 1973 and 1979—were closely linked to geopolitical events. The petrodollar system, organizations such as OPEC, and the control of major energy transportation routes have all contributed to a complex geopolitical landscape, making energy supply security a critical strategic concern for nations.
Environmental Pollution and Health Hazards: In addition to greenhouse gases, the combustion of fossil fuels produces large amounts of air pollutants, such as particulate matter, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen oxides, which pose serious threats to human health, including respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. Soil and water resources may also be polluted during the mining and transportation processes.
3.2 The Transition Window and Urgency Under the Climate Crisis
Scientific understanding of climate change continues to deepen, and a broad consensus has emerged. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), particularly in its Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C, has issued stark warnings: to limit the rise in global average temperature to within 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and avoid the most catastrophic consequences of climate change, global greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced by about 45% from 2010 levels by 2030, and net-zero emissions (carbon neutrality) must be achieved by around 2050.
This means the dominance of fossil fuels must be rapidly phased out within the next two to three decades, making way for zero- or low-carbon energy sources. The timeline is extremely tight, requiring an unprecedented pace and scale of energy system transformation. Achieving carbon neutrality is no easy task—it demands joint efforts from governments, businesses, research institutions, and the public worldwide, along with coordinated innovations in policy, technology, and market mechanisms. The brevity of this “transition window” constitutes both the defining feature and the most formidable challenge of today’s energy transition.
3.3 Historical Lessons for Future Transitions
Looking back at the history of human energy use, we can draw several valuable lessons:
Technological Innovation as the Core Driver: Breakthroughs in steam engines, internal combustion engines, and electric generators were key to past energy revolutions. The future energy transition likewise depends heavily on continuously developing and commercializing technologies such as renewable energy, nuclear energy, hydrogen, and energy storage.
Infrastructure Development Is Crucial: From the canal and railway networks for coal transport, to the electrical grids for power transmission, and to future smart grids and hydrogen pipelines, building and upgrading infrastructure is fundamental to enabling large-scale adoption of new energy sources.
Policy Guidance Is Indispensable: Government policy support, such as subsidies, tax incentives, carbon pricing, and regulatory standards, is vital in the early stages of an energy transition. These tools help steer investment, reduce the risk of new technologies, and cultivate emerging markets.
Energy Transition Is a Systemic Project: It involves not only changes in energy production but also in transmission, distribution, consumption, and even the broader economic structure. This requires cross-sector and cross-industry coordination.
Social Acceptance Shapes the Pace: Historically, the spread of new energy forms has often been accompanied by social adaptation and interest realignment. A just energy transition must prioritize fairness to avoid exacerbating social inequalities and ensure broad public support.
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